Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production: a coordinated analysis with a detailed structural model and an integrated multisectoral model

Abstract Scenarios for deep decarbonization involve biomass biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, they often include negative emissions via carbon capture storage or utilization. However, critical questions remain about the feasibility of rapid growth to high levels utilization, given land availability as well historical rates biofuel industry. We address these through a unique coordinated analysis comparison pricing effects on utilization in United States using multisectoral integrated assessment model, Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics Bioenergy Scenario (BSM). harmonized varied key factors—such prices, vehicle electrification, arable availability—in two models. rate biorefinery construction, fungibility feedstock types across conversion processes, policy incentives BSM. The deployment under price both models is within range current literature. reallocation feedstocks would need overcome bottlenecks achieve consistent with scenarios. Investments result near-term can develop technology expand capacity—reducing costs, enabling flexibility use, improving stability—but if demand high, investments might not bottlenecks. Biomass relies extraordinary industrial capacity. In this paper, we quantify describe potential challenges change.